Tuesday, 27 November 2012

probability - Limit of Poisson Distribution



Just for fun, I'm looking at the concentration of the Poisson Distribution near it's mean. For λ=10, there is a 36% probability of being within 10% of the mean. For λ=100, that number jumps to 70%, and at λ=1000, it's nearly 100%.




I've just taken a course in Probability...and I'm trying to make it more concrete in my mind. I'm just looking for a way to formalize this observation, so I can relate it to what I've learned.



It seems I have for Xn Poisson w/ Parameter n, P(|Xnn1|>ϵ)0 as n.



Is that the strongest thing I can say? How would you say this in the language of probability? It's almost like convergence in probability, except for the division by n. Thanks!


Answer



This is a case of the Weak Law of Large Numbers, since Xn is the sum of n independent Poisson(1) random variables. A stronger statement is given by the
Central Limit Theorem. See also the theory of Large Deviations, which tells you
that for a>1,
limn1nlogP(Xn/na)=aln(a)+a1



(if I've done my calculations right).


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