If you throw a fair die 10 times, what is the probability to throw number 6 at most once?
I thought the answer was the sum of probability to throw 6 once in 10 throws plus probability to throw 6 zero times in 10 throws:
16(56)9+(56)10
Why is this not correct?
Answer
You forgot the binomial coefficient. It should be
\binom{10}{0}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^0\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{10}+\binom{10}{1}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^1\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^9 = 0.4845167
In other words, you need to count which spots get a six. In the first case, zero spots get a six and there are \binom{10}0 ways to do that. In the second case, you need to get one six and there are \binom{10}{1} ways to choose the spot where six lands.
No comments:
Post a Comment