Wednesday, 15 August 2018

binomial distribution - If you throw a fair dice 10 times, what is the probability to throw number 6 at most once?





If you throw a fair die 10 times, what is the probability to throw number 6 at most once?




I thought the answer was the sum of probability to throw 6 once in 10 throws plus probability to throw 6 zero times in 10 throws:
16(56)9+(56)10
Why is this not correct?


Answer



You forgot the binomial coefficient. It should be

\binom{10}{0}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^0\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^{10}+\binom{10}{1}\left(\frac{1}{6}\right)^1\left(\frac{5}{6}\right)^9 = 0.4845167



In other words, you need to count which spots get a six. In the first case, zero spots get a six and there are \binom{10}0 ways to do that. In the second case, you need to get one six and there are \binom{10}{1} ways to choose the spot where six lands.


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