Tuesday, 16 February 2016

basic probability birthday question




I figure this is a trivial question since it's right in the beginning of the book but I get a different answer from that of the answer in the back of the book. I get .0847 while in the correct answer is .0828.



Anyways here is the question:



If birthdays are equally likely to fall on any day, what is the probability that a person chosen at random has a birthday in January?



January has 31 days and there are 365 days in a year so 31365 would be p for a non leap year. On a leap year it's 31366. Since a leap year occurs once every four years I thought I'd get my answer by doing:



3136534+3136614




Any suggestions?


Answer



Since January has 31 days, the most days a month can have, and 112=0.0833, there is no obvious way to get a figure as low as 0.0828.



Either it is a trick question or you have spotted an error.


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