Friday, 29 November 2013

probability - Finding the distribution of a n tossed fair coin



I am trying to solve the problem:




Consider a sequence of n tosses of a fair coin. Let X denote the number of heads, and Y denote the
number of isolated heads, that come up. (A head is an “isolated” head if it is immediately preceded

and followed by a tail, except in: position 1 where a head is only followed by a tail, and position n
where the head is only preceded by a tail.) Additionally, let Xi=1 if the ith coin toss results in
heads, and Xi = 0 otherwise, i = 1, . . . , n. Similarly, Yj=1 if the jth coin toss results in an isolated
head, and Yj=0 otherwise,j=1,...,n.



How to find the distribution of Y|X=2.




Here I think XBin(n,1/2) and YBin(n,1/8). I couldn't figure out the solution of this problem. Any help would be highly appreciated.


Answer




You either have 0 isolated heads or 2 isolated heads.



There are (n2) ways to place exactly 2 heads among the coin tosses.



Of which n1 of these choices gives you non-isolated heads..



Hence



Pr(Y=0|X=2)=n1(n2)=2n




Pr(Y=2|X=2)=1Pr(Y=0|X=2)=n2n


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