Tuesday, 19 November 2013

random - How to get probability of getting only those items from box which you did not pick before?



I have a box which contains n unused items (all items in the box are unused). From them I randomly pick k, where k<n items. Those k items became used when I picked them, and then I put them back into the box. How to find the probability that second time all k items I pick are going to be unused?(not those which I already picked before)



I already know that all possible ways of picking k from n is: n!k!(nk)!
and that possible ways of picking k from (nk) is : (nk)!k!((nk)k)!


Answer



There are indeed \binom{n}{k} ways of picking k items out of n.



The number of possible ways of picking k from n-k is \binom{n-k}{k} (so not \frac{n!}{k!(n-2k)!}).




These "ways" are equiprobable so the event of picking the second time k items that are not picked the first times has probability:\frac{\binom{n-k}{k}}{\binom{n}{k}}


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