Saturday, 2 January 2016

probability - Intuition behind expression for expected value in terms of CDF

Let X be a random variable with support on S[0,). Let f be the pdf of X and F be the cdf.




I'm trying to get some intuition behind this identity for random variables with support on the nonnegative reals. I have a proof (given below).



E[X]:=0f(t)tdt=01F(s)ds



I've managed to convince myself that it is true, but I don't have the faintest idea why the integral of the complement of the cdf should mean anything in particular, let alone something nice like the expected value.



I got the proof mostly by pushing symbols around and remembering that you can sometimes do nifty things with indicator functions and reordering sums.



Proof




Start with LHS



t[0,)f(t)tdt



Express t as integral of indicator function.



t[0,)f(t)(s[0,)I[ts]ds)dt



move constant inside integral.




t[0,)(s[0,)f(t)I[ts]ds)dt



reorder integrals



s[0,)(t[0,)f(t)I[ts]dt)ds



This indicator function is equivalent to evaluating the inner integral on the interval [s,)



s[0,)(t[s,)f(t)dt)ds




difference of integrals over [0,) and [0,s)



s[0,)(t[0,)f(t)dtt[0,s)f(t)dt)ds



Use the fact that f is a pdf and integrates to one and definition of F



s[0,)1F(s)ds



Thus




t[0,)f(t)tdt=s[0,)1F(s)ds

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