Three coins are given: one two-head coin and two fair coins. You randomly choose a coin and the first three tosses give heads. What is the probability that 4-th toss is a head.
I have two solutions that give different results. Please help me to find the error.
1st solution:
P(first 3 tosses are heads)=23×18+13×1=512
P(first 4 tosses are heads)=23×116+13×1=38
P(4th is head∣first 3 tosses are heads)=P(first 4 tosses are heads)P(first 3 tosses are heads)=910.
2nd solution:
P(4th is head∣first 3 tosses are heads)=
=23×P(4th is head∣first 3 tosses are heads and coin is fair)+
+13×P(4th is head∣first 3 tosses are heads and coin is two-head)=23×12+13×1=23.
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