Friday, 28 September 2018

probability - A basic game of "roll-off", finding probabilities of events



A and B play a "roll-off". The rules of the game are simple: they'll each roll the dice (which is a standard, fair, six-sided dice with faces numbered 1 to 6), and whoever obtains the higher number wins. In the event of a tie, they'll both roll again, until there's a winner.






a. What is the probability that B wins the game on the first roll? (Give your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms.)







Here we want whatever player B gets to be greater than whatever player A gets. So we want Pr(A>B) how do I find this though?






b. What is the probability that A wins the game, but not on the first roll? (Give your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms.)







Here I want Pr(A=B)Pr(A>B) but again I'm not really sure how to find it.






c. Suppose A rolls first, and gets a '2'. At that moment, what is the probability that B will win the game? (Give your answer as a fraction in its lowest terms.)






Here I want to find \Pr((A>B)|(B=2)) and you guessed it, I don't really know how to.






Answer



(a) In this case you can just enumerate the outcomes:
(2,1),(3,1),(4,1),(5,1),(6,1),


There are 15 outcomes with B>A and 36 possible outcomes from rolling two dice, so the proability is 1536=512.



(b) It's clear by symmetry that both players have an equal chance to win. So this probability is 1/2 times the probability that the first roll is a tie (since the first roll must be a tie in order for A to win but not on the first roll). So the probability is 1216=112.



(c) The probability that B wins on the first roll, given that A rolled a 2, would be 4/6=2/3 (since B could roll 3, 4, 5, or 6). We also need to add to this 1/2 times the probability that the first roll is a tie (which is 1/6, i.e. when B rolls a 2 on the first roll). So the probability is 23+1216=34.



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