Saturday, 29 April 2017

probability - The normal approximation of Poisson distribution




(I've read the related questions here but found no satisfying answer, as I would prefer a rigorous proof for this because this is a homework problem)



Prove: If Xα follows the Poisson distribution π(α), then
limαP{Xαααu}=Φ(u)



where Φ(u) is the cdf of normal distribution N(0,1)



Hint: use the Laplace transform E(eλ(Xαα)/α), show that as α it converges to eλ2/2




I did the transform but failed to sum the series(which is essentially doing nothing)






Here's what I got:



g(λ)=n=0eαn!αneλ(nα)α



and limαg(λ)=eλ2 is what I'm trying to arrive at. I tried L'Hospital only to find that the result is identical to the original ratio.


Answer




Let Xα Poisson π(α), for α=1,2,
The probability mass function of Xα is
fXα(x)=αxexx!α=1,2,
The moment generating function of Xα is
MXα=E(etXα)=eα(et1)t(1,1)
Now consider a “standardized” Poisson random variable Zα=Xααα
which has limiting moment generating function
limαMZα=limαE(exp(tZα))=limαE(exp(tXααα))=limαexp(tα)E(exp(tXαα))=limαexp(tα)exp(α(et/α1))=limαexp(tα+α[tα1/2+t2α12+t3α3/26+])=limαexp(t22+t3α3/26+)=exp(t22)
by using the moment generating function of a Poisson random variable and expanding the
exponential function as a Taylor series. This can be recognized as the moment generating function of a standard normal random variable. This implies that the associated unstandardized random variable Xα has a limiting distribution that is normal with mean α and variance α.


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