I own five different six-sided dice. Four of the dice are fair dice, meaning they have values 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6. However, one of the dice is loaded; thus, it never shows 1, 2 or 3, but is equally likely to show the values 4, 5, or 6. For my experiment, I will pick up one random dice and roll it twice.
The first thing I would like to calculate is the probability of getting two sixes. To calculate this, I first calculated the probability of getting one six and multiplied it by two. Suppose S = event that two sixes are rolled.
P(S)=2(45(16)+15(13))=.4
However, I am not sure if this is correct. I need to calculate this because I would also like to calculate P(L|S) where L = event that a loaded die was picked. Additionally, I feel this is incorrect, because if I change the '2' to a '10' to calculate it for 10 rolls instead of 2, I get a value over 1 which makes no sense. To summarize, how can I calculate P(S) properly so I can calculate P(L|S)?
Answer
The 16 and 13 should be squared at first, not doubled at the end. The correct calculation for P(S) is
P(S)=45⋅162+15⋅132=145+145=245
The second term above is P(L∩S), so
P(L∣S)=P(L∩S)P(S)=1/452/45=12
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