Monday, 13 April 2015

probability - Binomial distribution not adding up



Suppose that there are 730 people in the class and each person’s

birthday is equally likely to be any of the 365 days in the year (for this question you should ignore
leap years).



Define X1 be the random variable corresponding to the number of people born on the
first day of the year.



Similarly, for i=2,3,...,365, define Xi to be the number of people born on
the ith day of the year.



So each Xi takes a value in the range {0, 1, . . . , 730} and, for example,

P(X1 = 10) = {730\choose{10}} \frac{1}{365}^{10} \frac{364}{365}^{720}



I realize that this is a Binomial distribution. Now:



Let X = X1 + X2 + . . . + X365



E(X) = 730




var(X) = 0



why is E(X) = 730? I thought that in a binomial, the E(X) = Np, which in this case would be \frac{730}{365}


Answer



If Y_1,\dotsc,Y_n are iid \text{Bin}(n_i,p), then
Y = Y_1+\dotsb+Y_n\sim\text{Bin}\left(\sum_i n_i, p\right)



Notice, that Y_i are iid. Your X_i are not iid, and X is deterministic,
X = X_1+\dotsb+X_{365} = 730

since each person is born on a particular day during the year. In other words, the number of people born in the year is 730.



Hence
E[X] = E[730] = 730,
and \text{Var}(X) = \text{Var}(730) = 0.


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