Wednesday 8 April 2015

Probability of first actor winning a "first to roll seven with two dice" contest?



Two players P and Q take turns, in which they each roll two fair and independent dice. P rolls the dice first.



The first player who gets a sum of seven wins the game. What is the probability that player
P wins the game?


Answer



I'm going to assume P goes first. The question should have said so, unless something else was intended, in which case it's unclear.



Let (lower-case) $p$ be the probability that P ultimately wins. Then

$$
\begin{align}
p & = \Pr(\text{P wins on 1st trial}) + \Pr(\text{P loses on first trial and ultimately wins)} \\[8pt]
& = \frac 1 6 + \frac 5 6 (1-p).
\end{align}
$$
So solve the following:
$$
p =\frac 1 6 + \frac 5 6 (1-p).
$$



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