Sunday 27 December 2015

probability - Calculating expected value for a Binomial random variable



How do you calculate $E(X^2)$ given the the number of trials and the probability of success?



$E(X) = np$, then $E(X^2) = $?




Do we have to draw up a table for $n=0,1,2,\ldots,n$ and then use the probability of success for each.



$$E(X) = x \ P(X=x) \ldots$$ this would take forever, is there a shortcut?


Answer



Well, $\mathrm{var}(X) = np(1-p)$ and $\mathrm{var}(X) = E(X²) - (E(X))^2$, so: $$E(X²) = \mathrm{var}(X) + (E(X))² = np(1-p) + n^2p^2 = np(1-p+np)$$


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