Sunday, 13 August 2017

Probability of consecutive dice rolls



This is probably quite a simple question but here I go..
Suppose you are going to roll a six-sided (fair) die N times, what is the probability that you will get at least one set of three consecutive numbers in a row?
Hopefully that's clear enough but as an example, in nine rolls you may get:
1, 4, 2, 6, 4, 4, 4, 4, 3
With the 4s making two sets of consecutive rolls.
Thanks!


Answer



Let T denote the first time when this happens and, for every |s| and k in \{0,1,2\}, u_k(s)=E_k[s^T] where k is the number of identical results just produced. One is asking for P_0[T\leqslant N]. A one-step Markov conditioning yields the usual linear system u_0=su_1, u_1=s\left(\frac16u_2+\frac56u_1\right) and u_2=s\left(\frac16+\frac56u_1\right).



Solving this yields u_0(s)=\frac{s^3}{36-30s-5s^2}. There exists two positive real numbers a and b such that 36-30s-5s^2=36(1-as)(1+bs), thus u_0(s)=\frac1{36}\frac1{a+b}s^3\left(\frac{a}{1-as}+\frac{b}{1+bs}\right) and, for every n\geqslant1, P_0[T=n+2]=\frac1{36}\frac1{a+b}(a^{n}-(-1)^nb^{n}). The value of P_0[T\leqslant N] follows.




Numerically, a=\frac1{12}(5+3\sqrt5)=0.97568, b=\frac1{12}(-5+3\sqrt5)=0.14235, for every n\geqslant1, P_0[T=n+2]=\frac1{18\sqrt{5}}(a^{n}-(-1)^nb^{n}), and, when n\to\infty,
P_0[T=n]\sim\frac{7-3\sqrt5}{5\sqrt5}a^n,\qquad P_0[T\geqslant n]\sim\frac{12}{5\sqrt5}a^n.


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