Friday, 6 June 2014

probability - Suppose we roll a fair 6 sided die repeatedly. Find the expected number of rolls required to see 3 of the same number in succession.




Suppose we roll a fair six sided die repeatedly.




Find the expected number of rolls required to see 3 of the same number in
succession




From the link below, I learned that 258 rolls are expected to see 3 sixes appear in succession. So I'm thinking that for a same (any) number, the rolls expected would be 258/6=43. But I'm unsure how to show this and whether it really is correct.



How many times to roll a die before getting two consecutive sixes?


Answer



For n{0,1,2} Let E[n] denote the answer given that you are starting from a streak of n consecutive rolls. The answer you want is E=E[0], though you are never in state 0 except at the start.




We note E[2]=16×1+56×(E[1]+1)


E[1]=16×(E[2]+1)+56×(E[1]+1)



E=E[0]=E[1]+1



this system is easily solved and, barring error (always possible), yields E=43


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