Thursday 13 August 2015

dice - Probability of rolling a "1" on a die conditioned on when all rolls are different.



So I have this problem:



I am rolling a six sided die 3 times.

Conditioned on the rolls all being different, what's the probability at least one die is a "1"



So I worked it out like this:



probability of not getting a 1 on the first roll is 5/6



probability of not getting a 1 on the second roll is 4/6



probability of not getting a 1 on the second roll is 3/6




I then just did (5/6) * (4/6) * (3/6) to get 60/216 possible conditions where you would not roll a 1.



Doing 216-60 you get that 158/216 possible solutions (or 13/18) possible solutions for rolling a "1" when all numbers are different. Does this make sense? The number seems a bit large and I am not sure how to check it.



Thank you in advance.


Answer



You're almost there, but you made a small error:



Hint: How many possible outcomes are there on the second roll?


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