Tuesday, 30 April 2013

derivative of binomial probability



I saw the following claim in some book without a proof and couldn't prove it myself.




ddpP(Bin(n,p)d)=nP(Bin(n1,p)=d)



So far I got:



ddpP(Bin(n,p)d)=ddpdi=0(ni)pi(1p)ni=n(1p)n1+di=1(ni)[ipi1(1p)nipi(ni)(1p)ni1]



But I am not very good playing with binomial coefficients and don't know how to proceed.


Answer



Consider the derivative of the logarithm:
ddp[logPr[X=xp]]=ddp[xlogp+(nx)log(1p)]=xpnx1p,
hence ddp[Pr[X=xp]]=(nx)px(1p)nx(xpnx1p) and ddp[Pr[Xxp]]=xk=0(nk)pk(1p)nk(kpnk1p)=xk=0(nk)kpk1(1p)nk(nk)(nk)pk(1p)n1k.
But observe that (nk)(nk)=n!k!(nk1)!=(k+1)n!(k+1)!(n(k+1))!=(k+1)(nk+1), hence the second term can be written (k+1)(nk+1)p(k+1)1(1pn(k+1)), which is the same as the first term except the index of summation has been shifted by 1. Therefore, the sum is telescoping, leaving ddp[Pr[Xxp]]=0(nx)(nx)px(1p)n1x. All that remains is to observe (nx)(nx)=n!x!(nx1)!=n(n1)!x!(n1x)!=n(n1x), therefore ddp[Pr[Xxp]]=nPr[X=xp], where XBinomial(n1,p), as claimed.


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