Sunday, 2 August 2015

probability theory - Equality involving a sequence of independent exponentially distributed variables




I'm trying to prove the following statement: Let (Tn:n1) be a sequence of independent, exponentially distributed random variables with TnExp(qn), let q:=n=1qn< and T:=infnNTn. Then there exists a random variable N with positive integer values such that P(T=TN)=1. If N=n then Tn<Tj,jn. Furthermore, T and N are independent, TExp(q) and P(N=n)=qnq.



I'm having problems with this part: Let N=n if Tn<Tj for all jn and not defined otherwise. Then for each t0 we have P(N=n,Tt)=P(Tj>Tnt,jn)=tP(Tns)P(Tj>s,jn)ds.



How do I get the last equality?



EDIT: TExp(λ) if its PDF is as defined here. E[T]=1λ.



EDIT 2: I've noticed a problem given later, it goes like this:




Let T and S be non-negative, independent, absolutely continuous random variables with PDFs fT and fS, respectively. Then for each t0 we have



P(T<tT+S)=t0fT(u)(tufS(v)dv)du. I guess I should be able to solve the initial problem if I knew how to show that.


Answer



Let A=[N=n,Tt]=[jn,Tj>Tnt]. You write:




Then (...) P(A)=tP(Tns)P(Tj>s,jn)ds.
How do I get the last equality?





This equality does not hold. Actually, P(Tjs)=eqjs for every s0 hence, by independence,
P(ATn)=1TntjneqjTn=e(qqn)Tn1Tnt,


Now, P(A)=E(P(ATn)) hence
P(A)=E(e(qqn)Tn;Tnt)=te(qqn)sqneqnsds,

that is,

P(A)=qnteqsds=qnqeqt.

This identity shows the property you state at the beginning of your post.


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