We repeatedly roll a fair die until any number appear twice in a row. I want to find the expected number of rolls until we stop. I am thinking this is a geometric distribution, but how would I apply the distribution formula here, would the probability of throwing two numbers in a row be 136?
Answer
Let X be the number of rolls.
P(X=2)=16
P(X=3)=(56)116
P(X=4)=(56)216
So, P(X=k)=(56)k−216
Let q=56 and p=16
E(X)=∑∞k=2kP(X=k)
=∑∞k=2kqk−2p
=pq∑∞k=2kqk−1
=pq(∑∞k=0kqk−1−∑1k=0kqk−1)
=pq(∑∞k=0kqk−1)−p
=pq(11−q)2−pq
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