Saturday, 26 April 2014

probability - Expected number of rolls for fair die to get same number appear twice in a row?



We repeatedly roll a fair die until any number appear twice in a row. I want to find the expected number of rolls until we stop. I am thinking this is a geometric distribution, but how would I apply the distribution formula here, would the probability of throwing two numbers in a row be 136?


Answer



Let X be the number of rolls.
P(X=2)=16
P(X=3)=(56)116
P(X=4)=(56)216
So, P(X=k)=(56)k216
Let q=56 and p=16




E(X)=k=2kP(X=k)
=k=2kqk2p
=pqk=2kqk1
=pq(k=0kqk11k=0kqk1)
=pq(k=0kqk1)p
=pq(11q)2pq


No comments:

Post a Comment

real analysis - How to find limhrightarrow0fracsin(ha)h

How to find lim without lhopital rule? I know when I use lhopital I easy get $$ \lim_{h\rightarrow 0}...