Thursday, 28 July 2016

probability theory - Implications of Poisson distribution



Consider the random variable Nn drawn from a Poisson distribution with intensity parameter n so that E(Nn)=n.



Could you help me to show that Nnnp1 as n?



My doubts: I do not understand what happens to Nn as n. If I consider the probability distribution of the Poisson, when n the probability of observing Xn=x goes to zero. Is this somehow related to the statement above?


Answer




It's true that the probability of Nn taking any fixed value goes to zero as n but that has little to do with what it's value will tend to be. It is simply a reflection of the fact that there are a wider range of likely values, so the probability of any one of them must be very small.



The slickest way to prove your statement is probably to show that a Poission with mean n is equal in distribution to the sum of n independent Poissons with mean 1 and then use the law of large numbers.


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