I'm trying to find the probability of at least 2 people in a room of 4 sharing the same birthday (without using complements).
I began by breaking the problem down into 4 cases:
Let E = the event that at least 2 people share the same birthday in a room of 4.
Our sample size: 3654
Case 1: 4 people share the same birthday: 365 ways
Case 2: 3 people share the same birthday, 1 distinct birthday: 365⋅364⋅C(4,3)
Case 3: 2 people share a birthday, another 2 people share some other birthday: 365⋅364⋅C(4,2)2
Case 4: 2 people share same birthday, 2 distinct birthdays: 365⋅364⋅363⋅C(4,2)⋅2
After adding up all the cases and dividing by the sample size to find probability the answer had an over-count. I checked my answer by doing P(E)=1−365⋅364⋅363⋅3623654
Where did I have an over-count? Thank you!
Here is an example that works with n = 3 people and at least 2 people share same birthday.
Case 1: 3 people share same birthday: 365
Case 2: 2 Same birthdays, 1 different: 365 \cdot 364 \cdot \binom{3}{2}
P(E) = \frac{365 + (365 \cdot 364 \cdot \binom{3}{2})}{365^3} \equiv 1 - \frac{365 \cdot 364 \cdot 363}{365^3}
Those are both equivalent answers because in the complement we're subtracting away the event that all birthdays are distinct.
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