Friday, 25 September 2015

probability - Fair dice thrown until each number is obtained at least once



A fair die is thrown until each number is rolled at least once, but we throw at most seven times. I need to find a probability function, X describes how many fours are thrown.




My problem is that I can either throw 6 times (when I get one of the 6! permutations of (1,2,3,4,5,6)) or 7 times (when one number appears at least twice).



I think the sample space must be sth. like this (where ωi{1,..,6}i):



Ω={ω:ω=(ω1,...,ω6),ωiωj ij,}A ... A is the set of all (ω1,...,ω7) where the first six components ω1,...,ω6 are different numbers because otherwise we would be in the first set again. Maybe this is even too complicated, i don't know, but how does P(X=k) look like?


Answer




Throw the die seven times whatever happens during the six first throws and compare X to the number Y of fours during these seven throws.





One knows that Y is binomial Bin(7,16), that is, pk=P(Y=k) is pk=(7k)(16)k(56)7k for every 0.



The only case when Y\ne X is if X=1 and Y=2. This happens if the six first throws produce every result exactly once and if the seventh throw produces a four, thus P(X\ne Y)=P(X=1,Y=2) is q=\frac{6!}{6^6}\cdot\frac16.



Finally, P(X=1)=p_1+q, P(X=2)=p_2-q, and, for every 0\leqslant k\leqslant 7 not 1 or 2, P(X=k)=p_k.


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